The argument of those who fully support the
current leadership of Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) and its disastrous policies
goes: the TFG is the only entity recognized
by the International community as the
legitimate government of Somalia, and the
Ethiopian troops are there, because they are
provoked by the Union of Islamic courts (UIC)
and/or they are the guest of TFG to help
improve security, disarm the insurgents,
implement the rule of law, and then, the end
of TFG’s term approximately two years time,
there will be a free and democratic
elections that will but Somalia back to its
lost status as a full member in United
Nations (UN), and the accompanying
privileges (such as international aid, world
bank loans and development grants).” However
the weakness of this observation is that it
is very biased, and fails to take into
account the major events of 2006 that
weakened the dominant clan paradigm.
However, the underlying this argument is the
following assumptions: first the process that
created TFG was inclusive, and the warlords
truly represent their clans. Second the TFG came
to power, pre-Union of Islamic Courts, to
reverse a worsening situation. And third, there
is no alternative other than the warlords to
achieve the transition from failed state status
to a state reconstruction and state building.
The TFG has many problems, but the biggest
challenge it has been facing since its
conception in 2004 is the lack of legitimacy,
and the unwillingness of its leaders to present
them selves as a credible leaders by wining the
hearts and minds through genuine national
reconciliation, listening the people they claim
to represent, and reliance of the soft power of
democratic forces (such as civil society groups,
credible clan leaders, women’s groups, Islamic
leaders, Diaspora and academics/intellectuals),
instead of relying self serving Ethiopian
military, through evasion and the expected
outcome of popular resistance against occupying
enemy, and the war crimes against unarmed
civilians.
It’s astounding to hear diplomats, commentators,
and the media portray the renewed Somali
Conflict and the carnage in Mogadishu as
inevitable and African Union effort to save a
democratically elected government, from Muslim
terrorists, as if it is a “war to end all wars
in Somalia.” An interview with Voice of America
Somali language, Undersecretary of State for
African Affairs Jendayi Frezer have described
this war as if its similar with previous wars,
however, the truth is that, this war crimes are
committed by a foreign army (Ethiopian
Military), and the TFG which is a government
recognized by international community.
The leaders of TFG new that the danger of
involving Ethiopia (traditionally ruled by
Christians, and has politicized Orthodox Church
that exert influence on its leaders), which
majority of the Somalis consider their classic
enemy, with imperial ambition, and access to the
see ports. Its naïve and indeed dangerous to
think that Ethiopian invasion will bring order
and stability in Somalia
[1].
However the human cost of its invasion is what
Congressman Donald Payne from New Jersey called
“Mogadishu: Another Darfur in the Making” (the
title of a press release on April 27, 2007).
More than 1000 unarmed civilians were killed in
cold blooded, 400,000 others were displaced,
using tanks, and artillery in a residential area
and to justification their savage behavior they
said “we are responding to Al-Qaeda’s attacks.”
The fall of Bares regime in 1991 and the ensuing
anarchy, and distraction of human lives, and
property, created by clan loyalty with poor
leadership, and bad choice of using violence to
gain political power, combine with the clan
leaders perception of politics as a zero sum, as
well as, clans undemocratic nature and its
leaders unwillingness to compromise, didn’t
advanced clan members interest, Therefore, many
people questioned their clan loyalty and became
more conscious of alternative instruments to
improve their security, rise their quality of
living, and to influence politics through
interest groups (that has a multi-clan members)
such as businesses associations, Islamic
organizations, women’ s groups, other civil
society associations. However the events of 2006
were an indication and assertion of this
political and social transformation, and a
beginning of a new era for Somali politics.
When the media question the TFG’s poor
performance, and the credibility of its
leadership, the answer of TFG’s leaders are
always the same, they underline the power
sharing mechanism of 4.5 (which is clans power
sharing formula), that created the TFG in Kenya
in 2004, to justify their legitimacy, and failed
to accept the fact that members of TGI are
selected by the warlords form their sub-clans.
If they truly represent their clans they
wouldn’t have a difficult pacifying Mogadishu
after five month of Ethiopian invasion and 1,400
African Union (AU) contingency from Uganda as
well as financial assistance from European Union
(EU) and the United States.
The irrelevance of members of Transitional
Federal Institutions (TFI) was exposed when
Ethiopian Generals conducted direct negation
with the insurgent leaders. Even thought, the
sees-fire they agreed was a temporary
convenience for both sides (to bury their dead,
and reposition them selves). What surprised many
observers was the inaction of TFI members, which
helped to confirm the allegation that they are
held hostage in the city of Baidoa – the seat of
Transitional Federal Parliament – and Ethiopian
security forces are monitoring their activity.
There is also another United Nations (UN)
mechanism in place to make sure they stay in
baidoa to earn their daily allowances. There are
some intelligent and well intentioned members of
parliament who doesn’t have other sources of
income, who made their priorities to but food on
the table for their families, and we shouldn’t
be blaming them.
Therefore, any effort such as appointment of
Department of States special representative as
well as unconditional financial and logistic
support of the United States and the presence of
Ethiopian military might will not deliver the
needed sustainable peace and state
reconstruction, without genuine national
reconciliation that brings major political
players such as leaders of Union of Islamic
Courts (UIC) and former speaker of parliament
Sheriff Hassan and other members of parliament
who left the country after Ethiopian troops
invaded Somalia as well as other stake-holders:
including tribal leaders, civil society groups,
women’s groups, intellectuals, academics,
expatriates, and Islamic leaders.
Thus, any national reconciliation conference
that doesn’t take this approach to solve the
protracted Somali conflict is short sighted, ill
advised and will doom to fail. There is a debate
going on now about the National Reconciliation
Conference (NRC) which is expected to take place
in Mogadishu in mid June. The delegates will
come from all Somali clans - based on the
current clan power sharing formula of 4.5 - to
reconcile their difference. The question that
many observers are asking is that the current
conflict is not between clans its between TFG
and the insurgency (which includes UIC
sympathizers, people who feel they have no stake
at the TFG, and other who are convinced to fight
against Ethiopian invasion), therefore, the
objective of any NRC should have been to bring
TFG and the opposition groups to end the
violence and create of Government of National
Unity (GNU).
Furthermore, national reconciliation doesn’t
mean bringing self appointed and irrelevant clan
leaders who have made alliance with the
politically bankrupt warlords, in order to
sustain their importance, this time, with the
barrel of Ethiopian tanks. One must accept the
fact that international community’s recognition
and support for the TFG is not substitute for
genuine national reconciliation. Genuine
National Reconciliation is the only route toward
sustainable peace, and the creation of GNU. In
addition, given the attitude of the TFG leaders,
and their unwillingness to compromise, genuine
national reconciliation cannot be achieved
without international pressure.
Recent interview with Voice of America Somali
language Mrs. Jendayi Frezer was more realistic
than she has been, when she said, the current
leadership of TFG needs to change, but was short
to embrace realistic approach to achieve this
objective. By insisting national reconciliation
conference must take place in Mogadishu under
Ethiopian invasion and the warlords in charge of
security and city administration, will not help
to break the impasse and move forward, to end
the ongoing suffering of poor Somalis.
James Swan, Deputy Assistant Secretary for
African Affairs speech at Ohio State University
on April 21, 2007 to clarify U.S. Policy in
Somalia said “the disturbing images of Somalia
that we see on TV, the U.S. considers this to be
a moment of great opportunity for the Somali
people. With the routing of the Islamic Courts
Council in January, the extension of the
Transitional Federal Government’s presence to
new areas, and the increased international
attention, we believe this is the best
opportunity in perhaps 20 years to establish
first a functional transitional government in
Somalia and then prepare for elections in 2009,
as called for by the Transitional federal
Charter.” To those who objectively observe
Somali conflict, this is a simplistic assessment
of the current stalemate, and continuation of
same failed policies that led Somalia to its
current predicament
The current situation in Mogadishu - which is
opposite of what TFG leaders claim at the end of
major military confrontations, could be
characterized lull in major violence, and the
insurgency rethinking their strategy and
embracing unconventional/less intensive warfare,
including land mines, and hit and run tactics.
And the TFG leadership embarking a major
government reshuffles to bring more warlords,
less credible individuals, and secular “clanists”.
It’s true that the major events in 2006 provided
hope, and raise the confidence for the Somalis
to solve their problems, without less dependence
on foreign help. However, downward spiral of
Somali conflict is the result of TFG leaders’
incompetence, and ill advised policies that made
possible the Ethiopian invasion. To reverse this
trend Ethiopian invasion must end;
reconciliation must bring together TFG and their
opponents (leaders of UIC, former
parliamentarians, clan leaders, civil society
groups, Islamic leaders, Diaspora, and
intellectuals/academics); reconciliation
must be held in a neutral country.
In addition, genuine national reconciliation has
been a precondition for the release of the
with-held funds for the national reconciliation,
and other development funds, as well as the
contribution of other wise reluctant African
countries to provide robust African peacekeeping
mission in Somalia. Thus, genuine national
reconciliation is the only viable solution; to
end the violence; gain credibility for the TFG;
and improving TFG performance by bringing
credible people who know how to do the difficult
job of nation building. To achieve this we need
the U.S., EU, the Arab League, AU and UN to play
constructive role, by pressuring TFG to break
the stand off, and tie any future assistance for
its performance.
Daud Ed
Email:
daciid@gmail.com
Hopes of replacing violence with dialogue in
Somalia are focusing on a much-delayed national
reconciliation congress now expected in
Mogadishu next week. But the nascent peace
process could be stillborn if what Lord Triesman,
Britain's minister for Africa, describes as
"wreckers and spoilers" inside and outside the
country prevail.
Speaking after a meeting in London this week of
the international contact group for Somalia,
Jendayi Frazer, assistant US secretary of state
for African affairs, said Eritrea was leading
the pack of outsider ne'er-do-wells, harbouring
"extremist elements" linked to violent Islamist
groups. Hardliners have threatened to wage an
Iraq-style insurgency in Somalia and have
started using suicide bombers.
Eritrea is an old foe of Ethiopia, whose troops
invaded Somalia last winter with tacit US
backing to oust the Council of Islamic Courts,
which had taken control of much of the country.
Ms Frazer added that the Islamists, who the US
says have links to al-Qaida, were also getting
help from sympathisers in the Somali diaspora,
including in the US, and from Gulf states.
Ethiopia's continuing troop presence is resented
by Somalia's Muslim majority, which views it as
an occupation and questions Addis Ababa's
intentions. Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's prime
minister, had promised a quick in-and-out
operation. But an upsurge in resistance in the
spring and the failure of the African Union (AU)
to deploy sufficient peacekeepers dispelled that
notion.
Ethiopia maintains "the vast majority" of its
troops have withdrawn. Those remaining in
Mogadishu were engaged in tracking down "mujahideen
and al-Shabaab extremists", disarming clan
militias and police training, it said in a
statement. "Generally, the rest of Somalia is
enjoying the fruits of peace."
But that assessment was belied by this week's
attempted assassination of Ali Mohammad Gedi,
prime minister of the western-backed
transitional federal government (TFG); and by
the latest UN figures indicating that 300,000
people from Mogadishu have yet to return home
and 850,000 nationwide remain dependent on
international food aid.
The contact group said planning for a follow-on
UN peacekeeping force was a matter of urgency.
Ms Frazer said the US would provide more than
$100m (£50m) in assistance to Somalia this year,
including $57m for the AU force, and urged
others to do more. But she suggested that
"wreckers" aside, Somalia's mainstream political
factions could be their own worst enemies.
She said the US was particularly "disheartened"
by the TFG's arrest this week of Abdi Iman, a
senior member of Mogadishu's influential Hawiye
clan, and the closure of three local
broadcasters for allegedly "supporting
terrorism".
The contact group said next week's congress,
originally scheduled for April, was "the primary
vehicle [for the TFG] to demonstrate an
inclusive approach to governance, help deliver
security, and advance political reconciliation".
But Lord Triesman stressed that only those who
"renounce violence" should participate in the
process - and outsiders should steer clear. "We
can do without anybody fighting their proxy wars
on Somalian territory."
Hussein Badyill, Somalia's foreign minister, had
given a personal pledge that the congress would
go ahead on time, his spokesman said yesterday.
British sources were cautiously upbeat, saying
the London talks had taken place in "a more
positive atmosphere" than in the past and that a
stronger consensus on the way forward was
emerging.
But the big test is still to come: whether the
various clans, sub-clans, warlords and religious
factions can share power, instead of fighting
over it. "The TFG people know that some of them
are going to have to move aside," a diplomat
said. "All of the people of Somalia must have a
share in the process."
Simon
Tisdall
